Will Oil Be $100? – ENB Weekly Recap

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Will oil be $100? Next on the Energy Newsbeat weekly standup recap. [00:00:05][5.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:13] Israel targets Iran’s South Parsfield in escalating airstrikes, Iran retaliates. Michael, I’m having a hard time getting a nail down on the damage, but let’s go through this. According to the IRGC-affiliated media in Post On X, the attack targeted critical infrastructure in Phase 14 of the South Parsfeld in Bushehr province, causing fires prompting an immediate response from Iranian forces. This is incredibly significant because this also ties to the Leviathan field in Israel has been shut down and that Leviathan in the Mediterranean is causing Egypt a gas shortage. Now there is going to be a huge impact to LNG exports from Qatar that is going to be impacted on this. So there’s 78 deaths and over 320 casualties so far. And again, we’re not on the edge of that kind of news. We’re here to cover the energy side of this and the operators in the SouthPars gas field. PetroPars leading NIOC subsidiary development and production at phase 14. Iranian offshore engineering and construction. The IOC handles the offshore platform. This is going to be a huge issue as it settles out. [00:01:42][88.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:42] It’s, I mean, it’s going to be unbelievable. I think everybody who’s in the oil and gas business saw what happened to oil Thursday night when this all took, or I think it was Wednesday. Was it Wednesday or Thursday night? I think was starting. [00:01:53][11.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:54] Wednesday night and Thursday and it’s about another two weeks it’s going to take to isolate out. I saw General, I believe it’s King, on Maria Bartiromo this morning on the Sunday show, or yes, yeah, when we filmed this is Sunday, and he was basically saying that they are going after the energy. If he says they’re going after energy, the oil and gas depends on how far they take it out. The automakers pivot to hybrid sales as EV sales lag behind expectations. Will the EV market bifurcate into Tesla versus all the other hybrid? I think your points are spot on, Michael. [00:02:34][39.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:34] Yeah, let’s just jump to that one. Let’s go. [00:02:36][1.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:36] Let’s go. I’ll tell you, I wrote this one and it was a lot of fun. And when you sit back and take a look, EV sales are in the market now. Listen to this. In 2025, Q1, ICE sales are now 78% of the market. That’s down from 80%. And where is it being picked up from? Hybrid sales hybrid i did not realize was really starting to kick in into the millions of units in 2024 hybrid sales was 1.5 million units ice sales was 12.6 million evie was 1 2 million or 7.7% hybrids 9.6% and the ice sales ice was 80% Now you’re looking at hybrid sales at 13 and EV sales are still at the 7.9%. So I think hybrid is just now gearing up. [00:03:36][60.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:37] No, I completely agree with you, and I mean that chart you’ve got in the article is kind of crazy. And we’ve been on this for a year now, you know, we’ve put our stake at the ground. We believe hybrids are going to outlast EVs from the standpoint of it’s what a battery is designed to be a backup power, and it’s a hybrid is. It’s backup power. It increases your fuel efficiency so you can get a lot more miles out of a single tank of gas. It allows you to be less harsh on your engine because you’re able to do a lot of other things that are very interesting. So, I mean, we put our flake in the ground. Now, luckily, the data is rolling back in and the cost of an EV is a lot higher than your cost of a hybrid. [00:04:18][40.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:18] Exactly. And, and I added in here because I’ve been looking at day trading on Tesla and I think that Tesla is still going to be a great buy. I don’t give investment advice. However, Tesla is not an EV company by itself. I think they will be the sole US manufacturer of 100% EVs. I Think they’re gonna be the last man standing. [00:04:43][25.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:44] Don’t take your day trading advice from Stu. I promise, promise you that. [00:04:48][4.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:48] Rystad oil prices to remain below $80 despite escalating Middle East tensions. I think Rystad has the same idea on this story is that they’re seeing that everybody is wanting to shut this down except Netanyahu and Israel. So I think the whole rest of the world wants this thing shut down. And I, I couldn’t agree more. Let’s, but I’m, I’m rooting for the Iranian people to have a regime change. I want to be honest with you. Let’s get rid of the clerics that have been bugging us for 40 years and get a regime change by the people, not the CIA. [00:05:29][40.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:30] Yeah. I mean, I tend to agree again with Rystad analysis here. And I think the funny part is too, you were the one calling for $80 oil, and yet you’re agreeing right here with Rystad. But I think what this means, you know, from an investment standpoint, This is why gambling on tensions and war and things that are geopolitically out of your control is a bad idea because you really never know where they’ll go. On Thursday night, everybody thought oil was going to go to a hundred as it sits today. I mean, we’ll cover this. Oil’s actually now dropped below 70 reopening after the market rollover at 415. And we’re now in a standpoint where we may actually just be back down to 65 because it is what it is. Iran is scared. Nobody thought that on Thursday. This is where, as if you’re an investor and you’re trying to weigh geopolitical risk, it’s easier to just price out geopolitical risk altogether than it is to try to gamble on, Oh, well, it might be 70 if war breaks out. That’s it. I mean, first off, that’s morally, well that’s a little weird to put in there. But second off, it, there’s just no way you’re going to be able to do it. [00:06:39][69.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:40] And when I look at well economics, that’s what I look at. And then when you take a look at the amount of investment that is still needed, Michael, and then you look at demand, there’s a magic formula. And for our reviews, well economics makes a difference because it tells you where you’re going to drill total energy explains Malaysia with Petronas deal. Michael, this story is important for a couple of reasons. And you take a look at total total energies, as we say here, you know, yes. Oh, it’s total energy. Oh, total energy is I was like, did I just poop under rug? Oh, no. So net income was 42 billion down from five point one billion in Q1 of 2024 due to lower oil prices and weaker downstream performance. Take a look. At how they’ve taken a look of this. Why are they expanding out? Oh, wait a minute. Total energies shell and BP are following in the footsteps of the U S oil companies and they’re going after a bigger market share around the world. And they’re expanding into Malaysia to get money back into their thing. Cause Michael, remember the European countries took a left turn to the renewable energize market. And, and they have failed. And so they’re trying to get their money back. And now when you take a look at why this is, this is really good. The update from LNG prime.com under the deal, total energies will hold alongside Patronus, it’s wholly owned subsidiary Patronas Cargalli. I hope I got that right. 50% of operating working interest in blocks, SK 301B and SK 313 were significant gas discoveries. [00:08:30][110.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:32] Well, I mean, it’s what you’re seeing is the expansion into specifically LNG has been critical. And that’s where all of these super majors are going. I mean think about we talked about yesterday. What what’s really the prized asset that BP has that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is looking at? They’re looking at the gas assets. Why was Total Energy’s? And are Jays interested in Malaysia? Well, they’re gas assets or they’re gas assets specifically through Petronas partnerships. So I mean, the world is moving towards LNG. And again, as a capital allocator, you need to understand that if you’re investing in heavy oil prospects, you need to understand what that means for you. It means there it may mean that the divestiture market is weakening. Now, that’s on a global scale. If you’re looking at equities, obviously when you get into individual deal by deal, it’s a little bit different. So that’s great. [00:09:23][50.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:23] How the Israel-Iran crisis is swiftly becoming a Taiwan national security crisis. This is huge. You heard Michael and I talk about the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy lifeline. It’s the narrow waterway between Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates is on the world’s most critical oil transit choke point. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the EIA, approximately 20.9 million barrels per day of oil and products representing 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption passed through the strait in 2023. Additionally, about 20% percent of the LNG trade goes through there. That is huge. Now, why is this important to Taiwan? And the story points that out. Taiwan, which is nearly… All of its energy is imported. They have very little energy. Manufacturing is very like open season on this because over 40% of its crude oil imports and significant portion of its LNG primary from cutter pass through the straight, but here’s where this story gets dicey at a world at war post on X China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan. It’s a pretty big allegation, but they keep going into some more here. The U S will soon be involved in the conflict against Iran. China will see this as a major provocation. Why? And they go into what we’ve talked about. And that is China is Iran’s biggest oil client with the country’s private refiners, firing, buying most of Iran’s sanctioned feud. So this is huge. If the U S or Iran’s stop the crude, China’s going to get grumpy and they’re going to possibly act on Taiwan. So this. Is actually a huge issue for president Trump. And I have no doubt that they’re going to be able to negotiate this through this. But global and regional implications, underscore Z, interconnect us of global energy markets and geopolitical flashpoints for Taiwan. The immediate risk of an energy supply crunch, but the longer term threat lies in China’s potential to capitalize on regional instability and with the U S Nimitz coming from the Asia market over to this side of the pond, you’re going to have some issues going on. So it was a pretty interesting story. [00:12:01][158.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:02] China’s death grip on rare earth minerals, regulatory hurdles, and the U S processing efforts, Trump administration gains investment opportunities. There’s a lot in this story going on and it’s, you’ve heard Michael and I talk about a stranglehold in the West, a real problem around renewable, not necessarily renewable energy, but Just rare earth minerals and critical minerals. There’s two different things, but they’re almost interchangeable with some of them. China has 70% of its rare earth imports and domestic prop processing is virtually nonexistent. The U S relies on China for 70% of our rare earth inputs and domestic processing is virtually non-existent. Gallium is the only one that’s coming online to be able to produce, I believe, 50% of what we need. That’s one out of all the different minerals that we need.” The article outlines out regulatory hurdles in the United States, permitting delays, environmental concern, lack of expertise, rut row, economic viability, thin profit margins and China’s ability to suppress global prices deter investment. I think that this is critical and the way things are changing. And we’re seeing that the Trump tariff wars actually did not turn out to be a bad thing and president Trump and, and Scott Besson actually did a phenomenal job in getting it to this point. Hats off to the Trump team on doing that. So I would take a look as an investor at the markets and I’ve got some other investor CEOs that I’ve lined up coming up to talk about rare earth minerals, investing in, in a rare earth and also in other commodities. When we take a look at the administration gains, the trail deal with China in June announced a tentative agreement to resume the talks executive order 14 to 41. This is streamlined permitting for domestic minerals and projects. So they’re on it. It invoked the defense production act, the DPA to fund mining, fund mining and processes. That is huge getting us tariff exemptions on this. I have to hand it to the entire energy team, Secretary Burgum, Secretary Wright, and Lee Zeldin for really supporting president Trump through this We take a look at the death grip on rare earth minerals, expose the West’s problem and closing the gap will take years to try to get this thing solved out. We don’t have years. We got a year at the most. So… But sit back and take a look at your portfolio and gold may not be the only one for you to break apart and take look at you portfolio. Take a look your portfolio. So do I want some higher gains? Look at geranium mining or any of those other kinds of mines and say, wait a minute, this is important for this kind of sector. This is a defense need. This This is a huge issue and a lot of money can be made. When you pick apart your portfolio in pick and choose in the rare earth minerals and production, make sure you check the management of those companies. Check their performance very much like the Exxon mobile CEO at Darren woods. When he was on with Brett bear, I put that article out on sub stack. Yesterday, this morning. Yes, so it’d be yesterday. He did an outstanding job. And as an investor, looking at ExxonMobil, not only would I look at their buyback program or their fees back or their stock, whether or not it’s a day trade or it’s however you want to look at it, but the CEO is very critical when making a determination. And hats off to Darren Woods at ExonMobile That wasn’t an outstanding interview with Brett Baird that’s on the energy newsbeat.co.substack.com. Go out there and check out that article. [00:16:30][267.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:30] Senate caves on IRA wind and solar subsidies. This one is by the great, great friend of the show, David Blackman, his sub stack highly recommend checking him out. It’s really interesting. I mean, if you go back and look last week, you know, the one of the big positives of the big, beautiful bill outside of the fact that it would add 4 trillion to the debt. But one of the big positive of that bill was that they were really going to yank the wind and and the version that was basically outlined by the Senate Finance Committee was very strict, or at least the one that got presented to the Senate finance house committee. The problem is the one came out of the Senate financial committee basically sort of walked it back. So what specifically happened, so specifically, and I’m going to read straight from his sub stack here, specifically the Senate does away with the hard house provision that a wind and solar project must be placed into service by 2028 with softened language requiring only that developers quote, begin construction on a site by 2030 to, in order to receive these subsidies and to give you guys an idea. In reality, what does that mean? It means big oil and gas or excuse me, big solar and wind companies like Orsted, you know, like, you know any number of these offshore wind and Solar companies, All they needed to do was make minimal down payments by 2030 to claim, quote, had to have started construction in order to then continue to receive the IRA subsidies and those tax benefits through 20 40 without having to basically do anything and even like kick up a pound of dirt. Unfortunately. So unless there’s amendments, that’s what’s going to happen. I mean, it’s, it, it it’s unfortunately not good because you can rest assured and I love, I’ll just read now straight from the article here. You know, you can rest assured and you can be sure that in the 15 years between now and 2040, the wind and solar companies and their associations will most likely drafted this revised language and handed to a friendly rhino on the Senate Finance Committee, which will continue to spend millions of dollars with well-connected lobbyists on efforts to remove this absurdly soft, fake deadline. He then goes to list out who are the people on the finance committee. And he does, I love this. He goes, if you’re looking to rank likely rhino sallouts on this issue, I’d rank them as follows. Number one, Texas Senator John Korn. Next, Oklahoma Senator and Chairman Subcommittee, James Langford, Kansas Senator Roger Marshall, and Montana Senator Steven Dane. He both. I love this quote. Senators Corn and Langford are notorious wind shills. No less, less so shills for the solar industry, but it’s pretty crazy what they wanna do with this. I mean, basically they’re moving this deadline back in order to appease somebody, who they’re trying to appeas. Well, obviously it’s the wind lobby and you know, and the wind Lobby, which is funded by big wind, you know? Big wind, big pharma, big oil, they’re all in there. You know, big everything, but the point is, Like everything that happens in reconciliation, we go for the moon and we end up somewhere down here. And to me, this is not good. You’ve got to, you’ve got too, you got to go ahead and get that out of there because everything needs to be on a level playing field. I cannot stand when people say, well, oil and gas. Has tax benefits. It has benefits, it does not have subsidies. What the IRA is, is subsidies, and there’s a difference between a subsidy and a tax benefit. So if you want, call up your senator, make sure this doesn’t happen. But if this bill goes through, it may end up being where those subsidies actually stay. In there. [00:20:08][217.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:08] What’s going on everybody welcome into a special weekly recap edition of the daily energy newsbeat stand up here on this gorgeous June 21, 2025 it’s been a heck of a week guys we had a great great oil prices out of control this week We’re going to be covering Iran Israel throughout this whole weekly recap. We’re gonna sprinkle in some other stuff. The team is going to throw some of our top segments for the week, but holy smokes has unbelievable week. I’m tired. Appreciate you guys checking us out here on this Saturday. We will be back in the chair on Monday to bring you all the news quickly. Guys, just again, check us out. Energy newsbeat.com links to all of the articles in the description below timestamps are down there. Subscribe to our sub stack, the energy newsbeat, not sub stack.com. We just released a great piece on what to look for as an energy investor. If you’re interested in getting into the oil and gas business as an investor, I highly recommend checking out that piece. It’s gonna be a great guide for you. Also, please, please please. Visit reeseenergyconsulting.com if you need any help in the midstream space guys, reeseenergyconsultting.com. We love them there. They’ve got clients from two guys in a garage all the way up to the largest publicly traded midstream companies in the world so they can handle anything and everything you need. Reese energy consulting.com, tell them Energy Newsbeat sent you. And finally, guys, if you are wondering if oil and gas is right to be added to your portfolio, we have a great oil and gasoline portfolio survey. Invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com or hit the link in the description below. It’ll tell you. Just a couple of quick questions. We’ll then send you an ebook on oil and gas investing. And if you look like you’re a good fit, we will shoot you and get you in contact with the right folks to do that, guys. So really appreciate everybody checking us out here. I’m gonna go kick it over to the team. We’ll see you Monday, folks. [00:20:08][0.0][1190.8]

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