Tight oil production in Permian drives growth in onshore U.S. Lower 48 states production

I have added the international 2025 numbers for the top producers above the current EIA Lower 48 production number report.

Comparison of Top Oil Producers in 2025

1. United States:
   • Production: ~13.55–13.59 million bpd
   • Details: The U.S. continues to lead globally, with a record-breaking output driven by shale production, particularly in the Permian Basin. The EIA forecasts U.S. production to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, a slight increase from 13.2 million bpd in 2024. Growth is expected to slow due to lower oil prices and geological limits in shale fields, with a potential peak around 2027.
2. Saudi Arabia:
   • Production: ~10.5 million bpd
   • Details: Saudi Arabia remains the second-largest producer, with production capacity constrained by OPEC+ voluntary cuts and a state-directed cap at 12 million bpd. In 2023, its output was around 9.7 million bpd, and while OPEC+ plans to restore some production in 2025, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to surpass the U.S. due to its lower capacity ceiling.
3. Russia:
   • Production: ~9.7 million bpd
   • Details: Russia’s production has been impacted by sanctions and OPEC+ cuts, with 2023 output at around 10.1 million bpd. For 2025, estimates suggest a slight decline or stabilization around 9.7 million bpd, as sanctions and reduced export revenues limit growth.
4. Canada:
   • Production: ~5.5 million bpd
   • Details: Canada’s oil production, primarily from Alberta’s oil sands, is expected to grow by 8% by 2025, reaching around 5.5 million bpd. This continues a trend of record-high outputs, supported by new and tie-back sites.
5. Iraq:
   • Production: ~4.4 million bpd
   • Details: As OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq’s output is projected to remain steady at around 4.4 million bpd, constrained by OPEC+ agreements and infrastructure limitations.
6. China:
   • Production: ~4.1 million bpd
   • Details: China’s production is expected to hold steady at around 4.1 million bpd, with modest growth driven by domestic investments. It remains a significant but smaller player compared to the top three.

• The U.S. produces approximately 50% more oil than Saudi Arabia and nearly 40% more than Russia, reinforcing its dominance.
• The combined production of the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia accounts for about 40% of global oil output, with the U.S. alone contributing over 16% of the total.
• Non-OPEC+ countries like the U.S., Canada, and Brazil are driving global supply growth, projected to increase by 1.5 million bpd in 2025, while OPEC+ production remains limited by cuts.
• Challenges for the U.S. include declining oil prices (WTI around $60–70 per barrel) and geological constraints in shale basins, potentially slowing growth.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts for 2025 production.
• International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report, January 2025.
• Forbes, Reuters, and other analyses for global production trends.
• X posts providing 2025 production estimates and rankings.

Onshore crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 states (L48) has more than tripled since January 2010, driven by tight oil production growth in the Permian region. Onshore crude oil production is made up of both legacy oil production, primarily from vertically drilled wells, and newer tight oil production, primarily from horizontally drilled wells.

Legacy production decreased from 2.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 2.1 million b/d in 2024. Over the same period, tight oil production increased from 0.8 million b/d to 8.9 million b/d, accounting for 81% of total onshore L48 oil production in 2024. The Permian accounted for 65% of all tight oil production growth and 51% of L48 oil production in 2024.

Since 2010, U.S. tight oil production within and outside of the Permian has generally grown. Tight oil production from non-Permian plays decreased from 2015 to 2017 in a period of low oil prices. At the beginning of 2020, tight oil production from the Permian region was essentially equal to tight oil production from all other producing regions in the United States. Permian and non-Permian oil production both fell significantly in response to crude oil prices falling below $50 per barrel (b) related to the COVID-19 pandemic, with production reaching annual lows in May 2020. After 2020, however, production in the Permian increased at a faster rate than production outside the Permian.

Tight oil production in the Permian began growing again in 2021 as crude oil prices rose, but production in the non-Permian remained low. After 2020, Permian tight oil production grew at a slower rate than 2017–19, but by December 2024, Permian production reached 5.6 million b/d, up 45% compared with 2020. In contrast, non-Permian tight oil production decreased by 14.9% (0.6 million b/d) based on the annual average oil volumes from 2020 to 2024.

Within the Permian region, the Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, and Spraberry plays produce most of the tight oil, accounting for 99% of Permian tight oil production in 2024. The Wolfcamp play, the largest of the three, has driven growth in the Permian and produced 3.4 million b/d of tight oil in 2024, which was equivalent to production from all other non-Permian tight oil plays combined. The Spraberry and Bone Spring combined produced an average 2.1 million b/d in 2024.

Principal contributor: Troy Cook

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